RC Rick Collettesecurity · AI · music · people
Futures

Where I think technology is headed.

A thesis about the next waves — agentic AI, physical AI, programmable biology — plus the compute, energy, and capital underneath it. Every claim here has a data table and a methodology note behind it.

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Thesis

Agentic AI and governed tool use become the control plane. Physical AI makes automation visible. Programmable biology and new compute widen the blast radius.

The readiness score below is a heuristic discussion model, not a prediction engine. It weights growth, capital, infrastructure pull, governance pull, and platform breadth.

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Visual models

These visualizations summarize the timing, readiness, and convergence patterns behind the thesis.

415 TWh -> 945 TWhdata center demand projection
$109.1B2024 U.S. private AI investment
542k in 2024industrial robot installs

Wave Timeline

Timeline
202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AI copilots and chat interfaces (High) Agentic AI + governed tool use (High) Energy-aware compute infrastructure (High) Physical AI / robotics (Medium) Ambient personal interfaces (Medium) Programmable biology + AI medicine (Medium) New compute - quantum/optical/neuromorphic (Low/Medium) WavesFuture Technology Waves
202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044AI copilots and chat interfaces (High) Agentic AI + governed tool use (High) Energy-aware compute infrastructure (High) Physical AI / robotics (Medium) Ambient personal interfaces (Medium) Programmable biology + AI medicine (Medium) New compute - quantum/optical/neuromorphic (Low/Medium) WavesFuture Technology Waves

Readiness Model

Model
Agentic AI governanceReadiness 90%Energy-aware computeReadiness 79%Physical AI / roboticsReadiness 76%Programmable biologyReadiness 70%New compute paradigmsReadiness 65%Ambient interfacesReadiness 60%
Agentic AI governanceReadiness 90%Energy-aware computeReadiness 79%Physical AI / roboticsReadiness 76%Programmable biologyReadiness 70%New compute paradigmsReadiness 65%Ambient interfacesReadiness 60%

Convergence Map

Model
AI as Infrastructureagents, tools, governancePhysical AIrobots, edge AI, automationProgrammable Realitybiology, manufacturing, repairEnergy-Aware ComputeGovernance and SecurityNew Computequantum, optical, neuromorphicAmbient Interfaces
AI as Infrastructureagents, tools, governancePhysical AIrobots, edge AI, automationProgrammable Realitybiology, manufacturing, repairEnergy-Aware ComputeGovernance and SecurityNew Computequantum, optical, neuromorphicAmbient Interfaces

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All Data Tables

The complete underlying datasets are included below so the thesis can be inspected instead of only summarized.

Wave Timeline

Complete dataset
WaveStartEndConfidence
AI copilots and chat interfaces2,0222,028High
Agentic AI + governed tool use2,0252,032High
Physical AI / robotics2,0272,038Medium
Programmable biology + AI medicine2,0302,042Medium
Energy-aware compute infrastructure2,0262,040High
New compute: quantum/optical/neuromorphic2,0302,045Low/Medium
Ambient personal interfaces2,0282,040Medium

Readiness Model

Complete dataset
WaveGrowthCapitalInfrastructure pullGovernance pullPlatform breadthWeighted_score
Agentic AI governance0.850.90.8510.950.9025
Energy-aware compute0.650.8510.650.80.79
Physical AI / robotics0.620.80.90.60.850.755
Programmable biology0.550.650.60.90.90.7025
New compute paradigms0.450.60.80.70.750.6475
Ambient interfaces0.50.550.50.750.750.5975

Data Center Power Projection

Complete dataset
YearData_center_TWh
2,024415
2,025476.0056
2,026545.9791
2,027626.2388
2,028718.2968
2,029823.8874
2,030945

AI Private Investment

Complete dataset
Metric2024_USD_B
Global generative AI private investment33.9
U.S. private AI investment109.1

Industrial Robot Installations

Complete dataset
YearIndustrial_robot_installations_thousands
2,014271
2,024542

Growth Signal CAGR Comparison

Complete dataset
AreaCAGR_pctWindow
AI in healthcare38.92026-2033
AI market overall30.62026-2033
AI drug discovery24.82026-2033
U.S. AI robots22.282025-2034
AI-driven industrial robotics20.772025-2034
Synthetic biology17.332026-2035
CRISPR/Cas16.122025-2030
Service robotics14.042026-2035
Biotechnology13.962024-2030

Market Expansion Projection

Complete dataset
AreaStart_YearStart_USD_BEnd_YearEnd_USD_B
Biotechnology2,0231,5502,0303,880
AI in healthcare2,02536.672,033505.59
Service robotics2,02562.852,035233.8
AI robots, global2,02414.32,034124.26
AI drug discovery2,0252.32,03313.8
CRISPR/Cas2,0244.682,03011.33

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Evidence Charts

The full chart set is included here for a more visual read of the same evidence.

Wave timeline chart
Wave timeline
Data center power projection chart
Data center power projection
AI private investment 2024 chart
AI private investment
Industrial robot installations chart
Industrial robot installations
Growth signal CAGR comparison chart
Growth signal comparison
Market expansion log scale chart
Market expansion
Wave readiness score chart
Wave readiness score
Convergence map chart
Convergence map

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Methodology

This explains how the evidence and readiness model are framed.